India stares at 35% monsoon deficit

India's southwest monsoon, which made an early onset, stalled near the outskirts of Mumbai mid-June 2026, resulting in a cumulative all-India rainfall defici...

What Happened

India's southwest monsoon, which made an early onset, stalled near the outskirts of Mumbai mid-June 2026, resulting in a cumulative all-India rainfall deficit of approximately 35% against the Long Period Average (LPA) for the opening fortnight of the season.
Regional deficits are highly uneven: Central India recorded a 63–65% shortfall, and the eastern and northeastern regions faced a 43% deficit — the weakest mid-June monsoon position in 11 years.
The IMD data for June 4–15 showed the country received 19.2 mm of rainfall against a normal of 53.7 mm for that period.
The Union government directed states to prepare crop-wise contingency plans and placed 150–200 districts under priority monitoring, with special attention to 9–10 states expected to face concentrated rainfall deficits.
The stalling is attributed to a weakening of the cross-equatorial flow and jet stream dynamics that typically drive the monsoon's northward progression after it crosses the Western Ghats.

Static Topic Bridges

Southwest Monsoon and the Long Period Average (LPA)

India's southwest monsoon (June–September) is the dominant rainfall event of the year, delivering approximately 70–75% of the country's annual precipitation. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) measures the season's performance against the Long Period Average (LPA) — the average rainfall calculated over a 50-year base period.

LPA (1971–2020 base period): 87 cm for the June–September season (earlier base periods gave 88–89 cm; the 87 cm figure is the most recent official LPA).
IMD rainfall categories (all-India scale):
Normal/Near-Normal: 96–104% of LPA
Below Normal: 90–96% of LPA
Above Normal: 104–110% of LPA
Deficient: Below 90% of LPA
Excess: Above 110% of LPA
IMD issues seasonal (April/June), monthly, and weekly forecasts at national and sub-divisional levels.
Rainfall is tracked across 36 meteorological sub-divisions; a district-level cumulative departure is computed daily during the season.

Connection to this news: The 2026 monsoon forecast places India in the "below normal" category (90% of LPA) for the full season. The early fortnight deficit of 35% is a within-season deficit (not a seasonal forecast), reflecting the stalling of the monsoon's first pulse — a short-term anomaly that the season's later weeks may or may not compensate for.

Monsoon Dynamics: Onset, Advance, and Stalling

The southwest monsoon typically enters India via Kerala around June 1 (±7 days), then advances northward along two branches — the Bay of Bengal branch (faster, covers eastern India, Northeast, and Gangetic plains) and the Arabian Sea branch (covers the west coast and gradually moves inland). The monsoon's progression depends on sustained low-pressure systems, the strength of the Somali Jet (cross-equatorial flow), and the position of the subtropical jet stream.

"Monsoon stall" or "break" occurs when the cross-equatorial low-level jet (Somali Jet) weakens, limiting moisture flux into the subcontinent.
In 2026, the monsoon's first pulse — the western branch — lost momentum after crossing the Konkan coast and did not advance past the Mumbai–Pune belt by mid-June, leaving Central India, northern Maharashtra, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh severely deficit.
The northeast branch delivered early rainfall to parts of Assam and Bengal but also subsequently slowed, contributing to the 43% east–northeast deficit.
Monsoon "revival" typically requires renewed western disturbances or strengthening of the cross-equatorial flow — IMD tracks this via the South Asian Monsoon Index (SAMI) and 850 hPa wind anomalies.

Connection to this news: The stalling near Mumbai's outskirts is a classically documented "break monsoon" scenario. For kharif crops, the critical window is June–July: if the stall persists into late June, sowing of rain-dependent kharif crops (paddy, cotton, soybean, pulses) will be significantly delayed in Central India — the region with the deepest deficit.

IMD Forecasting and District-Level Monitoring

The IMD uses a two-stage seasonal forecast (April and June updates) and an ongoing Extended Range Prediction System (ERPS) during the season. The ERPS provides forecasts at 1–4 week lead times at district level — a critical tool for contingency agriculture planning.

IMD's seasonal forecast for 2026: "Below Normal" — 90% of LPA (with a model spread of ±5%).
El Niño was formally declared by IMD in June 2026, with forecast strengthening during the monsoon season (July–September) — a key factor in the below-normal prediction.
District-level monsoon monitoring uses the concept of cumulative departure from normal: a district is "deficit" if actual rainfall is <75% of normal for a 4-week period, and "scanty" if below 50%.
The government's Agriculture Ministry uses IMD's ERPS outputs to trigger district-level contingency plan activation.

Connection to this news: The 150–200 districts placed under priority monitoring correspond closely to IMD's district-level deficit map as of mid-June 2026. This monitoring framework allows the Agriculture Ministry to pre-position seeds, fertilisers, and drought-resistant variety kits before the critical July sowing window.

Key Facts & Data

All-India cumulative rainfall deficit (June 4–15, 2026): ~35% below LPA
Central India deficit (June 4–16, 2026): 63–65%
East and Northeast India deficit: ~43%
Actual rainfall June 4–15: 19.2 mm against normal of 53.7 mm
LPA (1971–2020): 87 cm for June–September season
IMD seasonal forecast 2026: Below Normal — 90% of LPA
IMD declares El Niño onset: June 2026
Weakest mid-June monsoon position in 11 years
Districts under priority Agriculture Ministry monitoring: 150–200
States flagged for concentrated deficit risk: 9–10
Kharif sowing window at risk: mid-June to mid-July for rain-fed crops in Central India