India's exports rise 15% in April-July; Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal confident of $1 trillion target
India's exports grew by 15% during the April-July period of the current fiscal year compared to the same period a year earlier
The government reaffirmed confidence in reaching a $1 trillion export target for fiscal year 2026-27
Nine Free Trade Agreements have been concluded over the past four years, expanding preferential access to dozens of partner countries
These agreements were described as opening new market opportunities for domestic industries
India's $1 Trillion Export Target for FY 2026-27
The $1 trillion target for FY 2026-27 builds on FY 2025-26's total exports (goods plus services) of roughly $863 billion. To cross $1 trillion, merchandise exports need to rise from about $442 billion to roughly $530 billion, while services exports need to grow around 11% to about $470 billion, according to the government's own break-up of the target.
Key Details
- FY 2025-26 total exports (goods + services): approximately $863 billion
- Target composition for FY 2026-27: merchandise exports ~$530 billion + services exports ~$470 billion ≈ $1 trillion
- The government has additionally set a longer-term goal of $2 trillion in exports within five years
- Exports are tracked and released monthly by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry (Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics, DGCIS, for merchandise trade data)
The reported 15% year-on-year rise in April-July exports is presented as evidence that India is broadly on track toward the $1 trillion FY27 milestone, though sustaining that growth rate for the full year would be required to hit the target.
India's Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Expansion Since 2021
India has pursued an active bilateral and plurilateral trade agreement strategy since 2021, moving away from a prior phase of caution on mega-regional deals (India stayed out of RCEP in 2019). Nine FTAs have been concluded in this period, together covering dozens of partner countries and giving Indian exporters preferential access to a large share of global markets.
Key Details
- Key agreements in this cycle: India-Mauritius CECPA (2021), India-UAE CEPA (in force May 2022), India-Australia ECTA (in force December 2022), India-EFTA TEPA (signed March 2024, in force October 2025 — covering Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein)
- More recent conclusions: India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (signed 2025) and India-Oman CEPA (2025)
- The government has stated that these nine FTAs collectively cover around 38 countries, giving Indian exporters preferential access to a substantial share of global trade
- Parallel negotiations are ongoing with the EU, Mercosur, Chile, and other partners, continuing the diversification strategy
The description's reference to "nine FTAs concluded in the past four years" opening new possibilities for domestic industries directly reflects this post-2021 trade agreement expansion, positioned as a structural driver behind sustained export growth.
Merchandise vs Services Exports — Composition of India's Trade Basket
India's export growth is driven by a mix of merchandise (goods) and services exports, which are tracked separately and behave differently in response to global demand cycles. Services exports (IT, business process outsourcing, professional services) have generally been more resilient than merchandise exports during global trade slowdowns.
Key Details
- Merchandise export growth drivers typically cited by the Commerce Ministry include engineering goods, electronics, gems and jewellery, and chemicals
- Services exports are dominated by software and IT-enabled services, with India being among the top global exporters of digital/IT services
- The government's FY27 target explicitly splits growth expectations between merchandise (~20% growth needed from FY26 base) and services (~11% growth), reflecting differing growth potential across the two categories
The reported 15% growth figure for April-July aggregates goods and services performance; understanding the differing merchandise/services growth trajectories helps explain whether the pace is likely to be sustained through the rest of the fiscal year.
- Export growth reported for April-July (current fiscal year vs previous year): 15%
- FY 2025-26 total exports (goods + services): approximately $863 billion
- FY 2026-27 target: $1 trillion (merchandise ~$530 billion + services ~$470 billion)
- Longer-term government goal: $2 trillion in exports within five years
- FTAs concluded in the past four years: nine, covering about 38 countries
- Key recent FTAs: India-UAE CEPA (May 2022), India-Australia ECTA (December 2022), India-EFTA TEPA (October 2025), India-UK CETA (2025), India-Oman CEPA (2025)