Union Home Minister and Minister and Cooperation Shri Amit Shah and Union Minister of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare Shri Shivraj Singh Chouhan reviews situation regarding below-normal rainfall and its impact in certain parts of country due to ‘El Niño’
The Union Home Ministry and the Ministry of Agriculture jointly convened a high-level review meeting to assess the impact of below-normal rainfall on parts of India during the 2026 southwest monsoon season.
India's June 2026 monsoon opened with a steep 40% rainfall deficit, driven by a strengthening El Niño, with central, eastern, and northeastern regions worst affected.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast the 2026 monsoon season at approximately 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) — classified as below-normal — with an 84% probability of deficient or below-normal rainfall.
Around 200 districts have been flagged as vulnerable to El Niño-related agricultural stress, with the Centre directing states to activate stage-wise crop and irrigation contingency plans.
The review examined both immediate drought relief measures and medium-term impact on kharif sowing, reservoir levels, groundwater recharge, and rural incomes.
El Niño and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — a periodic climate pattern driven by anomalous warming of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It operates on a 2–7 year cycle. The complementary cool phase, La Niña, has the opposite effect. The atmospheric component of ENSO — the pressure seesaw between the eastern and western Pacific — is called the Southern Oscillation; together they form ENSO.
Key Details
- During El Niño, anomalously warm Pacific SSTs suppress convective activity over the Indian subcontinent, weakening the southwest monsoon.
- During La Niña, cooler Pacific SSTs enhance convection over India, typically strengthening the monsoon.
- El Niño years with significant Indian monsoon deficits include 2002, 2009, and 2015; La Niña years tend to bring excess rainfall.
- The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) measures atmospheric pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia — a negative SOI indicates El Niño conditions.
The 2026 El Niño is suppressing convective activity over the Indian subcontinent, directly causing the below-normal rainfall deficit flagged in the government's review.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Its Modulating Effect
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a climate phenomenon defined by the difference in SSTs between the western Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea) and the eastern Indian Ocean (south of Indonesia). A positive IOD — warmer Arabian Sea, cooler eastern Indian Ocean — can partially counteract El Niño's negative effect on the Indian monsoon.
Key Details
- A positive IOD historically counteracted El Niño in years like 1983, 1994, and 1997, producing near-normal monsoon rainfall despite El Niño conditions.
- A negative IOD combined with El Niño creates the worst-case scenario — as in 2002 and 2015, when India recorded severe droughts.
- The IOD develops from April–May and peaks in October, making its phase critical to seasonal monsoon forecasts.
- IMD and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) monitor both ENSO and IOD in issuing Long Range Forecasts (LRF).
The forecast for below-normal 2026 rainfall indicates that IOD modulation is insufficient to offset the El Niño effect this season, heightening drought risk.
India's Drought Management Framework
India classifies drought under the Disaster Management Act, 2005. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) issues guidelines for drought management; states are responsible for declaration and relief. The Manual for Drought Management (2016) specifies drought declaration criteria, monitoring parameters, and permissible relief heads under SDRF/NDRF funding.
Key Details
- Drought declaration triggers in India: States assess meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, and socio-economic indicators; formal declaration is by the state government.
- State Disaster Response Fund (SDRF): Primary relief fund, maintained by states; Centre contributes 75% (90% for special category states) of the annual allocation.
- National Disaster Response Fund (NDRF): Additional central support for disasters beyond state capacity, managed by the NDMA.
- Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY): Crop insurance scheme providing financial protection to farmers against crop loss from drought, flood, and other perils.
- The IMD's Long Period Average (LPA) for annual rainfall is approximately 87 cm; below-normal is defined as 90–96% of LPA; deficient is below 90%.
The government review directly invokes the NDMA-NDRF framework to assess which districts require central drought relief support, and whether PMFBY and contingency crop plans need activation.
Kharif Agriculture and Monsoon Dependency
India's agricultural calendar is bifurcated into kharif (summer/monsoon) and rabi (winter) seasons. Kharif crops — sown in June–July and harvested in September–October — are almost entirely rain-fed and depend critically on the southwest monsoon. Major kharif crops include rice, maize, jowar, bajra, cotton, soybean, and sugarcane.
Key Details
- Approximately 60% of India's net sown area is rain-fed; these farmers have no access to irrigation infrastructure.
- A 10% decline in rainfall can reduce kharif output by 4–6%, with proportionally larger impacts on coarse cereals and pulses grown in rain-shadow regions.
- Below-normal monsoon depresses rural incomes, increases food price inflation, and strains rural credit demand — channels through which agricultural stress transmits to the broader economy.
- The government's contingency crop planning involves recommending alternative shorter-duration or drought-resistant varieties when sowing is delayed beyond threshold dates.
The joint ministry review specifically examined kharif sowing prospects in 200 vulnerable districts — areas where delayed or deficient rainfall can lead to widespread crop failure and demand for drought relief.
- India's June 2026 monsoon deficit: approximately 40% below normal
- IMD's 2026 seasonal forecast: approximately 90% of LPA (below-normal category)
- Probability of below-normal or deficient 2026 rainfall: 84%
- Number of districts flagged for El Niño vulnerability: approximately 200
- Long Period Average (LPA) for Indian annual rainfall: approximately 87 cm
- IMD definition of below-normal: 90–96% of LPA; deficient: below 90%
- Drought Management Act framework: Disaster Management Act, 2005
- NDMA (National Disaster Management Authority): established under Disaster Management Act, 2005, chaired by the Prime Minister
- PMFBY (Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana): crop insurance scheme covering kharif and rabi crops
- El Niño cycle frequency: every 2–7 years
- Major drought years linked to El Niño: 2002, 2009, 2015