As multilateralism erodes, India must reframe its foreign policy
A major policy analysis argues that multilateral structures are withering as power politics reshape the world order, requiring India to reframe its foreign policy beyond the traditional "strategic autonomy" framework.
The World Trade Organization stands paralysed, tech wars and tariffs are escalating, and protectionism has returned as major economies erect trade barriers.
The analysis recommends India build domestic capabilities, diversify trade partnerships, and pursue the Viksit Bharat 2047 vision as an organising principle for foreign economic policy.
The erosion of multilateralism is driven by the US strategic retreat from international institutions, China's assertiveness, and the rise of interest-driven mini-lateral groupings.
India's traditional multi-alignment approach faces new pressures as established rules-based frameworks lose effectiveness.
Strategic Autonomy: Evolution and Challenges
India's foreign policy doctrine of strategic autonomy has evolved from Nehruvian non-alignment through the Cold War to post-1991 multi-alignment. Strategic autonomy refers to India's ability to make independent foreign policy decisions without being subordinate to any power bloc, while engaging pragmatically with all major powers.
Key Details
- Non-alignment during the Cold War aimed to preserve independence from both the US and Soviet blocs.
- Post-1991, India shifted toward "multi-alignment," maintaining partnerships with the US, Russia, and others simultaneously.
- Strategic autonomy has been tested by the Russia-Ukraine conflict (India's refusal to condemn Russia while deepening ties with the West) and US pressure on technology and trade issues.
- Critics argue that strategic autonomy has become reactive rather than proactive, focusing on avoiding commitments rather than shaping outcomes.
The analysis argues that in a world where multilateral rules are collapsing, mere "autonomy" is insufficient; India needs a positive, capability-driven agenda that shapes the emerging order rather than simply navigating it.
Rise of Minilateralism: QUAD, I2U2, BRICS+
As traditional multilateral institutions (WTO, UN system) face gridlock, issue-specific minilateral groupings have emerged as the preferred vehicles for international cooperation. India participates in several such groupings that operate outside the formal multilateral architecture.
Key Details
- QUAD (India, US, Japan, Australia): Focuses on Indo-Pacific security, technology cooperation, vaccine supply chains, and maritime domain awareness.
- I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE, US): Focuses on food security, energy, water, transportation, and technology.
- BRICS+ (expanded in 2024 to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE): A platform for emerging economies to coordinate on trade, development finance, and reform of global institutions.
- BIMSTEC has risen over SAARC due to Pakistan-related political blockages in the latter.
- These groupings offer flexibility and speed but lack the legal frameworks and enforcement mechanisms of formal multilateral institutions.
The proliferation of minilateral platforms reflects the very erosion of multilateralism the analysis describes, with India positioned at the intersection of multiple such groupings but needing a coherent strategy to leverage them effectively.
Viksit Bharat 2047 and Foreign Economic Policy
The Viksit Bharat (Developed India) 2047 vision aims to transform India into a developed country by the centenary of independence. Achieving this target requires sustained GDP growth of 8-9% per annum, taking the economy to an estimated $30 trillion. Foreign policy is increasingly viewed as an enabler of this domestic economic ambition.
Key Details
- India's GDP was approximately $3.7 trillion in 2025; reaching $30 trillion by 2047 requires a sustained high-growth trajectory.
- Trade diversification is critical: India's merchandise exports remain concentrated, and supply chain resilience requires new partnerships beyond traditional Western markets.
- India is pursuing free trade agreements (FTAs) with the EU, UK, and GCC to diversify market access.
- The Critical Minerals Alliance, semiconductor supply chain partnerships, and green energy transitions are areas where foreign policy and economic security converge.
- Protectionism by major economies (US tariffs, EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) poses risks to India's export-led growth ambitions.
The argument that India's foreign policy must be reframed around the Viksit Bharat 2047 goal reflects a growing consensus that economic diplomacy, trade diversification, and capability building must become the central pillars of India's external engagement strategy.
- The WTO's dispute settlement mechanism has been paralysed since 2019 due to the US blocking Appellate Body appointments.
- India participates in QUAD, I2U2, BRICS+, BIMSTEC, SCO, and G20, among other groupings.
- India's GDP target under Viksit Bharat 2047: $30 trillion (from approximately $3.7 trillion in 2025).
- India is negotiating FTAs with the EU, UK, and GCC bloc.
- BRICS expanded from 5 to 10 members in January 2024.
- India's trade-to-GDP ratio stands at approximately 48%, reflecting significant but untapped trade potential.
- The US has imposed reciprocal tariffs on major trading partners, including India, in 2025-2026.